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History Talks Bitcoin Runs Fast in July, What’s This Year?

NewYork – Bitcoin’s historical performance throughout July has been mostly in the positive zone. This historical data has the potential to occur again in July 2024 considering that the current sentiment is still quite good.
Reporting from Refinitiv, Bitcoin experienced an increase on June 29 and 30 2024, gaining 1.37% and 1.55% respectively. This put Bitcoin back at the US$62,000 level.

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Bitcoin Price Movement (US$)

Tidak sampai di situ, secara historikal, kinerja Bitcoin pada Juli mayoritas berada di zona hijau.

Sejak 2016 hingga 2023 atau dalam delapan kali kejadian, lima diantaranya cenderung berada di zona positif atau sekitar 62,5% dengan rata-rata kenaikan 10,22% dan median atau nilai tengah berada di angka 16,4%.

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Bitcoin Performance Every Month July (%)

Various positive sentiments have also come towards risk assets, especially crypto, one of which, as quoted from cryptoslate, is that medium-scale Bitcoin transactions are increasing, reflecting market maturity and retail growth.

Bitcoin’s relative transfer volume, adjusted by entity and categorized by transfer size, shows complex trends across a range of transactions. In January 2024, transfers under US$1,000 constituted a small share of overall activity. Notably, transactions between US$1,000 and US$10,000 saw a small increase, reflecting gradual retail participation.

Larger transfers, ranging from US$10,000 to US$100,000 and US$100,000 to US$1 million, showed an increase and remained around 20-30% of total volume. This indicates increased institutional activity. Meanwhile, the US$1 million to US$10 million category also showed growth, while transfers above US$10 million experienced a decline.

Between mid-January and April, volumes above US$10 million experienced a revival before declining, reaching a low point in May.

Levels for the largest transfers rose again at the end of May and have stabilized since. The other ranges moved relatively, except for transfers under US$100,000 which remained stable.

Compared with historical data since 2017, last year there was a decline in the dominance of the smallest transactions, replaced by medium volumes, especially those exceeding US$100,000.

This shift highlights the maturing of Bitcoin’s user base, with increased reliance on significant transactions, potentially aligning with post-halving market conditions and a maturing institutional footprint.

Apart from that, data from the United States (US) in the last week has tended to weaken. This has led to the possibility of a cut in interest rates by the US central bank, The Federal Reserve (The Fed), which is increasingly optimistic that it will happen this year.

Based on the CME FedWatch Tool survey, it is estimated that this year there will be two interest rate cuts, namely in September and December with a total of 50 basis points (bps). This figure is higher than the Fed’s projection in the dot plot in June 2024, which predicts one interest rate cut this year.

When interest rate cuts occur, crypto investment becomes quite an attractive option for investors and this will lead to a surge in crypto prices including Bitcoin, which is the coin with the largest market capitalization in the world.

 

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